If Spelt Backwards #2 – Juan Pablo Montoya joins Red Bull, 2007

(Credit to my friend Luke for the Photoshop job here)

For the second edition of the counterfactual F1 history series, we move into the (relatively) recent past. At the end of 2005, McLaren announced that they had secured the signature of current world champion Fernando Alonso for the 2007 season. The move meant that the current pairing of Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya were now under serious pressure, and that perhaps both would be heading towards the exit after 2006.

Montoya, who hadn’t enjoyed his time at McLaren, was the first to blink. After the United States Grand Prix at Indianapolis, in which he had caused a huge first corner pile-up, he announced that he had signed a deal to join Chip Ganassi Racing in NASCAR. The deal was a big surprise as it was felt that Montoya, in his sixth season of F1, still had plenty to contribute, even if he had widely been expected to leave McLaren. It also surprised his team, who include clauses in their contracts for the drivers not to reveal their next destination until permitted to do so. Montoya was immediately sacked and replaced by test driver Pedro de la Rosa, who enjoyed one of the most bizarre cameos in modern F1 history, including 2nd place behind Jenson Button in the dramatic wet-dry Hungarian Grand Prix.

Until Montoya announced where his future lay, there had been plenty of rumour and speculation linking him with other F1 teams. One of these was Red Bull Racing, whom it would later transpire were trying to shift Christian Klien out of their race team. They eventually signed Mark Webber, in what was considered a sideways or even backwards step for the Australian – he had been expected by many to replace Alonso at Renault, so this is was somewhat underwhelming for him.

Hiring Montoya would undoubtedly have been a bigger coup, even if he would have been more expensive. In a 2013 interview with Sky Sports, he revealed that he had indeed had talks with Red Bull, along with Toyota and former team Williams, before settling on a return to Ganassi, with whom he had won the 1999 CART championship. But what if Red Bull had managed to persuade Montoya to continue his F1 career, partnering Coulthard in the team in 2007?

This was of course the first year Red Bull produced a car designed by Adrian Newey, marking the start of the team’s rise to prominence. It would take a couple of years of struggle before the team eventually won races and become a regular front-runner in 2009. In reality, until then Webber would effectively lead the team, taking a podium finish in 2007 and consistently scoring points in 2008. Coulthard provided experience and able back-up, including his own podium in 2008.

Montoya had a little more experience than Webber, particularly in terms of racing at the very front, but ultimately whether or not he would have done any better than him depends on how highly you rate the two drivers. Given that Webber was held back by reliability issues in 2007, it’s fair to say that Montoya probably wouldn’t have done much better than him initially. Race wins certainly seem unlikely for the first two seasons.

Perhaps it is worth speculating about the impact this would have on Montoya’s driving: would he, like Takuma Sato, have matured in the role, or would he have just become even more frustrated? I’m going to suggest the former, if only for the sake of this article, although I do think he has matured as a driver and a person in the years since anyway which suggests it would have happened regardless.

Come 2009, Red Bull would have moved into a position to win races. With Coulthard retiring, Sebastian Vettel would have arrived. But there are a number of key differences here.

Firstly, Montoya is unlikely to have been dealing with the effects of a broken leg and shoulder as Webber was, providing there were no further off-track ‘incidents’ for the Colombian. Secondly, his winning pedigree would have given him greater influence in the team, whereas Webber was beginning his battle with Vettel from a position of weakness, having less success to his name than the young German despite a much longer career. Thirdly, Montoya also knew what it took to win a race and challenge for the championship.

As a result, Vettel may have been forced to play second fiddle in the team in this initial season. With Montoya as team leader, Red Bull may have posted a stronger challenge to Jenson Button and Brawn. In the end, Button would probably have still won the championship due to the Brawn’s early season dominance, but it might have been a little closer.

Going into 2010, though, Montoya would have had momentum. With the car designed around his driving style and Vettel struggling to adapt to the exhaust-blown diffuser, the Colombian would have mounted a serious title challenge. Had Red Bull put all their eggs in his basket, he probably would have won it. However, this is assuming that a) Vettel didn’t slowly win over the team Lewis-Hamilton-in-2007-style and b) Montoya hadn’t alienated the team Fernando-Alonso-in-2007-style. This is a possibility, but I’ll go with a Montoya title.

However, it’s unlikely he would have held off the rapidly-improving Vettel forever. The team probably would have seen the tide turning in the team by the end of 2010, and in 2011 it is likely that Vettel would have emerged as the dominant driver in the team anyway.

Montoya would almost certainly have continued in the team, because, as Webber found out, it’s difficult to choose to leave the best team in the paddock. But by the end of 2013, he would have been 38, and probably would have decided to give something else a try – Le Mans with Porsche perhaps, to try and complete the Triple Crown?

The other question in all of this is what would have happened to Webber? The rumours in 2006 linked him with Renault for 2007, due to the role of Flavio Briatore. Heading there seems logical, presumably in place of Giancarlo Fisichella. The 2007 season would have been disastrous for Renault and Webber’s stock would have fallen, largely through no fault of his own.

Would he have stuck around with Alonso returning in 2008? Possibly, though it’s fair to say he definitely wouldn’t have agreed to deliberately crashing in Singapore. Either way, it probably wouldn’t have ended well for him there knowing how Renault declined rapidly after 2006.

Or could Webber have ended up at McLaren, either taking the seat Hamilton picked up in 2007 or Kovalainen’s in 2008? That leaves a more positive scenario where he becomes a race winner earlier than in reality, and may have established himself as the new Coulthard in the team. But it’s hard to plot out a path for him that worked out better than the real one. The old adage is true: sometimes you have to go backward to go forward.