Back in 1995, Michael Schumacher was at a career crossroads. He was on course for a second consecutive world title, but his Benetton contract was coming to an end, and as the man widely regarded as the most gifted and complete driver in Formula One, he received offers from every major team on the grid. The question was: which team would he be driving for in 1996?
Having already forked out a significant sum in his renegotiated contract for 1995, Benetton were unable to match the lucrative offers made by McLaren and Ferrari, and despite their recent success, Williams also declined to offer a large salary. So it came down to a straight choice for Schumacher between F1’s greatest team and one of its most successful teams, backed by the might of Mercedes, for whom he had driven in his sportscar days. In the event, McLaren offered Schumacher a larger salary, but Ferrari were more flexible around the commercial elements of the deal, offering him more freedom to sign personal sponsorship deals and the use of the Ferrari logo on his merchandise.
And so it was that Schumacher headed for Maranello, in a deal that would make F1 history – he went on to become Ferrari’s longest-serving driver, winning five world titles and 72 races with the team, and making an enormous amount of money from those personal sponsors and merchandise. It wasn’t until 2010, three-and-a-half years after leaving Ferrari for a temporary retirement, that he eventually drove for Mercedes again.
But what if Michael had not followed the astute advice of manager Wili Weber and signed for McLaren anyway? Rumours had linked Schumacher with a move to Woking as early as mid-1994, when the deal linking McLaren and Mercedes was drawing closer. Ron Dennis and Mercedes were very keen on bringing him into the team, and Marlboro were also desperate to be represented by a top driver, to the point that they eventually persuaded McLaren to sign Nigel Mansell for 1995 in a disastrous move that lasted only a few months. It’s perfectly possible that if McLaren had acted faster or been slightly more flexible, they could have secured Schumacher’s services for 1996.
Schumacher would have lined up at McLaren alongside Mika Hakkinen. The Finn had joined the team as a test driver in 1993, before being promoted to a race seat towards the end of the year after Michael Andretti’s disappointing season with the team was brought to a premature end. Hakkinen performed well in his first outings alongside Ayrton Senna and was rewarded with a three-year contract that took him through to the end of 1996. Despite suffering serious head injuries in his horrific crash at Adelaide at the end of 1995, he returned to action during winter testing and was fit enough to start the season.
A Schumacher-Hakkinen partnership is something of a dream team for 1990s F1 fans – in fact, I’ve alluded to it previously in If Spells Backwards. Towards the end of the decade, when the pair were competing against each other for race wins and world championships, Hakkinen was regarded as being the only driver capable of matching Schumacher for one-lap pace, and it was only his occasional propensity for anonymous race days that left the German rated higher.
However, at this point in their careers, there was only one likely winner in any contest between the two. In reality, Schumacher dragged a woeful Ferrari to three race wins, usually ahead of Hakkinen in a McLaren that was likely at around the same level. Michael was brilliant at hustling inferior machinery, as he demonstrated at Jordan, Benetton and Ferrari; Hakkinen’s record through his career in mediocre cars was patchy and inconsistent. Even if Mika had been on terms with him in qualifying, it’s hard to see how he could have matched Michael in the races.
How would this have played out in the wider context of F1? Jacques Villeneuve is pivotal to the late 1990s driver market. Bernie Ecclestone was desperate to get the Canadian into the championship for 1996, and arranged for him to sign for Williams. However, prior to this, Bernie’s first choice had been to arrange for Jacques to join Ferrari, the team with which his father Gilles will forever be associated. Schumacher signing for Ferrari seemingly nipped this in the bud, but with Michael at McLaren, it seems likely that Jacques would have ended up at Ferrari. He probably would have lined up alongside Gerhard Berger, who only left the team to join Benetton because of Schumacher’s impending arrival, and took a large salary cut in the process. Jean Alesi would still have headed to Enstone, likely joined by the team’s test driver and 1994 race driver Jos Verstappen.
The other driver impacted would have been David Coulthard, who signed for McLaren for 1996, a year on from the Contract Recognition Board denying him the opportunity to move to Woking a year earlier. While the Coulthard-McLaren partnership always seemed likely, Schumacher’s arrival and Hakkinen’s contract would surely have prevented it. The most logical outcome would therefore be Coulthard staying put at Williams alongside Damon Hill. The Williams proved to be by far the best car in 1996, leaving the two British drivers as the main title contenders.
The first race, the Australian Grand Prix, may have proven decisive. Coulthard always went well at Albert Park – at least aside from 1996, when he qualified in 13th over a second behind Hakkinen. However, in giving him the benefit of the doubt, it seems likely he’d have outqualified Hill – something he did with increasing regularity in 1995. But as Villeneuve did in reality, Coulthard would probably have led the race from the front until an oil leak would have forced him to give the win to Hill.
Such a concession would have been a major psychological blow for Coulthard, not unlike the one he suffered in 1998 when he gave up a win to Hakkinen at the same event. If this was the case, Hill would likely have gone on to win the wet-dry race at Interlagos and the third round in Buenos Aires, before a messy performance at the Nurburgring would have left him in third place.
After a disappointing start to the season blighted by poor pace and unreliability, with only a third place to his name from Brazil, Schumacher would have arrived at one of his and Mercedes’ home races desperate for success. In reality, Coulthard held off Hill for third place and their first podium of the season, albeit well behind winner Villeneuve in the Williams and Schumacher a close second in the Ferrari. But with Schumacher in the McLaren, Villeneuve in the Ferrari and Coulthard in the Williams, it seems likely that Schumacher and Coulthard would have battled for the win, with an inspired Schumacher forcing a late mistake from the Scot to take the win, McLaren’s first since 1993.
Coulthard would undoubtedly have had opportunities to win races – he was traditionally strong in Imola, and performed well there in 1996 in the McLaren, suggesting he might have beaten Hill in the Williams, though in reality Villeneuve retired from that race with suspension damage after being clobbered by Alesi on the opening lap. He also would have had a strong chance of winning the dramatic Monaco Grand Prix, where Villeneuve struggled before eventually being taken out by Forti’s Luca Badoer, and Coulthard himself finished second in the McLaren. And of course he was always strong at Estoril, a circuit where Villeneuve beat Hill in a straight fight in 1996. But otherwise, the combination of Hill and Schumacher might have stopped him from winning many races – Michael would still have pulled off his incredible win in the wet in Spain, and probably would have popped up for wins later in the season when the car was faster, disrupting the title fight.
Coulthard may have run Hill quite close – maybe closer than Villeneuve did – but it seems likely that Damon may have just had enough to win the title in the end. For all that it is fashionable to criticise him today, Villeneuve was a talented driver and a steely character, who took some brilliant wins in 1996 and was building upon a remarkable IndyCar title in the previous season. By contrast, Coulthard never won a championship in car racing at a level above Formula Ford 1600. His record in title fights was never very strong – as well as his later disappointments at McLaren, he lost out to Rubens Barrichello in British Formula Three in 1991 and finished third in F3000 in 1993.
Schumacher would have finished 1996 in third place, the best season from a McLaren driver since Senna’s departure, with Hakkinen struggling to match him. But with his Adelaide crash in everyone’s minds, it’s likely he would have received a one-year extension to his contract as in reality to give him another chance to get close to Michael. Meanwhile, at Ferrari, Villeneuve would have endured a torrid first season in F1 in an unreliable Ferrari, but would have shown enough flashes to suggest he was capable of more.
Going into 1997, Hill would have been controversially shown the door by Williams as in reality, heading for TWR Arrows as team leader. Frank Williams is known to have made the decision to sign Heinz-Harald Frentzen for 1997 as early as the end of 1995, so Hill’s title win would have made no difference. Frentzen was set to be the new team leader, but could he rely on the support in the team?
Without the presence of Villeneuve, who proved to be a difficult team mate to compete against, Frentzen may have done better than in reality but ultimately would have run into the same issues. Instead, Coulthard would have started the season in good form. His main title rival would have been Schumacher, who would have won the opening race in Australia after polesitter Coulthard would have been taken out at the first corner by Benetton’s Eddie Irvine. However, the unreliability of the McLaren-Mercedes package would have left Michael struggling to keep pace with Coulthard’s more durable Williams. Again it would have been a close title fight, but it seems likely that Coulthard will have prevailed to win his first world title, ahead of Schumacher, Frentzen and Villeneuve, who once again would have failed to win a race and now faced mounting pressure to perform – he would have one more year to turn it around. Hakkinen, meanwhile, would have likely faced the exit from McLaren for failing to match Schumacher, heading to Benetton for 1998 in place of Jean Alesi.
1998 by contrast is a lot simpler. The arrival of Adrian Newey at McLaren would have given Schumacher the perfect car, and he would have dominated the championship to win his third title. New team mate Olivier Panis, brought in to support Michael and help develop the car with its new Bridgestone tyres, may have taken his first win (after those previous second-place finishes at Hockenheim, Adelaide and Monaco), but he would have been no match for the German.
The only other likely race winners would have been Hakkinen and Villeneuve, who would have finally scored their first victories. However, it’s unlikely Villeneuve would have been able to push the team on enough to challenge Schumacher for the title. With rising star Giancarlo Fisichella now placed alongside him and improving year-on-year, Ferrari would have lost patience and released him at the end of the season, with the Canadian seeking refuge at the new British American Racing team. Instead, Jean Todt would have plumped for a driver he rated highly, and was now available after a disappointing season with Williams: yes, David Coulthard was on his way to Maranello.
While the influence of Ross Brawn and Rory Byrne will have been felt in the design and strategy of the Ferrari cars and team, Coulthard and Fisichella are unlikely to have been capable of matching Schumacher in a Newey-designed McLaren on a consistent basis – and they would also have likely taken points off each other in any title fight. Schumacher would have gone on to win the title in 1999, 2000 and 2001. Maybe then, while sat on six world titles, would have Michael have answered the call from Ferrari – just in time to land in the most dominant F1 car of all time, and add another three championships to his name. He would have retired with at least nine world titles, possibly more, and over 100 race wins to his name – but would anyone outside Germany have been left watching F1 by then?
As for poor Mika Hakkinen, choosing to move to Benetton for 1998 may have been the worst possible move to make. While he may have been able to take his first win in a promising 1998 car, the team declined rapidly from then on. It would likely have consigned him to a career in the midfield, with occasional brilliant performances but otherwise considered a wasted talent – and fans would speculate about the championships the Finn could have won if it had been him and not Schumacher leading McLaren through their glory years…
Histor's Eye 