F1’s 2020 season is a foregone conclusion – as long as he doesn’t pick up COVID-19, a ban or end up in some other unforeseen off-track misdemeanour, Lewis Hamilton will win the drivers’ title for the seventh time. But the real interest is in the sub-plots, and one of those is about what the sport will look like in 2021 and beyond.
With so many contracts coming to an end, 2021 was always likely to see a seismic shift in F1’s driver line-up, and earlier this year, while the pandemic brought the actual racing to a halt, that was clear for all to see. But even after things started falling into place with key players making their moves, the silly season continued to rumble on and on, and as November approaches, there are seats at the front and back of the grid that are yet to be filled.
So let’s start at the beginning. Back in 2019, we knew that all of F1’s leading names – Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel, Max Verstappen, Valtteri Bottas, Daniel Ricciardo and Charles Leclerc – would be out of contract at the end of 2020, heading into what was thought to be a new era for the sport with the adoption of a new rules package. Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing, the three race-winning teams in 2019, were all looking to fill both their seats, providing drivers further down the grid with an opportunity to step up while also proving to be a potentially dangerous trap for any current employee of those teams to slip out of contention.
Focus inevitably was on what Hamilton, F1’s dominant driver, and Mercedes, its dominant team, would choose to do, with speculation linking the Englishman to a romantic move to Ferrari if he felt it was the right time to take a new challenge in his career. However, the dominoes started to fall into place even before 2019 was over. Leclerc, who had impressed in his first season at Ferrari by winning two races and beating the vastly-experienced Vettel in the championship, signed a huge five-year deal to remain at Maranello until the end of the 2024 season.
It was a statement of intent from the team to back the man who had emerged as their fastest driver, and seemingly scotched suggestions that a move for Hamilton was on the cards – Ferrari was clearly now going to be a team built around Leclerc’s prodigious talents, and attention now turned to the future of Vettel, entering his sixth season with the team having failed to win the championship despite being given fast cars and being in strong positions midway through 2017 and 2018.
Next came the announcement in January that Verstappen had signed a new four-year contract keeping him at Red Bull until the end of 2023. Max, the man widely seen as the heir to Hamilton as F1’s leading driver of the future, is known to have long been sought-after by other leading teams, including Mercedes, but seemingly committed his future to his long-time backers, in a team where he was unchallenged as the number one driver following the departure of Ricciardo to Renault a year before. His team mate at Red Bull for 2020 was to be Alexander Albon, who had stepped into the team halfway through 2019 after the demotion of the struggling Pierre Gasly and had delivered solid if unspectacular performances, albeit some distance off the pace set by his team leader.
But the earthquakes in the driver market didn’t emerge until May, while preparations were underway for the delayed start of the season. On 12 May, Ferrari announced it was parting company with Vettel at the end of the year – an unsurprising but unsatisfactory ending for a popular partnership. After two days of fervent speculation, Ferrari confirmed that Carlos Sainz Jr would be moving from McLaren to replace him, after an impressive 2019 season leading the team to fourth in the constructors’ championship. Meanwhile, McLaren confirmed that Ricciardo would join Lando Norris in their team. It seemed the dominoes were falling.
Renault were publicly furious that Ricciardo, who had been paid something in the region of $50 million for two years with the team, had chosen to walk away before the 2020 season had even started. But rumours almost immediately started swirling of an even higher-profile signing.
It wasn’t until 8 July that it was finally confirmed that they had re-signed two-time world champion Fernando Alonso, returning to F1 after two years away. Alonso would be joined by Esteban Ocon, who had signed a two-year deal with the team the previous year, moving on from the Mercedes junior programme that had given him a leg-up into F1 with Manor and Racing Point but had refused to allow him to join Renault for 2019, leaving him on the sidelines for a year.
Alonso’s return to F1 will be one of the most fascinating subplots of 2020. With Renault improving during the 2020 season and their planned rebrand to Alpine for 2021, all eyes will be on the team which last won the world championship with the Spaniard in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, Ocon faces the unenviable task of sitting in the opposite garage of the driver who most recently ended the F1 career of the promising Stoffel Vandoorne with his performances at McLaren.
A week later, it was Williams’ turn to confirm that Nicholas Latifi was to be retained alongside Mercedes junior George Russell, who had signed a three-year deal with the team starting the previous year. The confirmation that Russell was to stay at Williams seemingly nixed any suggestions that he would be promoted to Mercedes, and sure enough, on 6 August, F1’s leading team confirmed Bottas was to be retained for 2021 – but only on a one-year deal.
The most recent announcement came on 10 September, when Racing Point – soon to be rebranded as Aston Martin – confirmed the much-rumoured arrival of Vettel. Vettel had initially been linked with a sensational return to Red Bull, even appearing on the corporation’s television channel Servus TV, but in the end was lured to the Silverstone-based team ahead of their rebrand, orchestrated by team owner Lawrence Stroll, whose son Lance is not yet officially confirmed at the team for 2021 but is widely believed to be staying on alongside Vettel.
The move was not without controversy, though, as the team’s other current driver Sergio Pérez was under contract for 2022, but now found himself looking for a drive in a crowded market. Pérez had been loyal to the team over seven difficult years, including initiating legal action against the team in 2018 – then known as Force India – in order to send it into administration so that it could be successfully rescued. Meanwhile, Vettel’s performances over the past two years have been increasingly erratic, and the wisdom of replacing the Mexican – known for his ability at maximising performance on race days – with a driver who has made a series of costly mistakes in race situations seems questionable, even if Vettel is a four-time champion of the sport.
On the face of it, this means that 11 seats are now confirmed for 2021, with another nine still yet to be decided. It is a surprise that despite the series of announcements back in May, which seemed likely to lead to the grid being locked down fairly quickly, nearly half the grid is unconfirmed.
In fact, if recent suggestions are to be believed, even some of those 11 drivers under contract can feel uneasy. In one of the most captivating silly seasons in recent F1 history, there may be many more twists and turns yet to come, with the future of drivers from the head of the championship to the back still very much up in the air with six races to go.
So what’s to be decided? Starting at the front, it may surprise people that Hamilton’s position at Mercedes is yet to officially be confirmed for 2021. The team have insisted that they are not rushing negotiations – and this may be true – but the subtext to this is that if this is nothing to be concerned about, why not get the deal done? Amidst speculation that team principal Toto Wolff is set to step down at the end of the year and that Mercedes may even sell the team to sponsor Ineos, it is by no means a certainty that Hamilton will continue to race for the team. Indeed, given the lack of other attractive seats available at this stage, the most likely alternative is that he will retire from F1.
Leaving aside the issues around Mercedes’ future in F1 – speculation around which is more at the fanciful end of the scale at this stage – the consequences of any decision from Lewis to retire has particular implications for three drivers in particular. It’s particularly curious that the future of all three has been up for discussion in recent weeks, and maybe that’s not a coincidence.
Firstly, there’s Russell. The young Englishman is seemingly locked into the final year of his contract with Williams and has impressed this year with rapid qualifying pace, even if he is yet to finish in the points on race day. You would think he has nothing to worry about – a GP3 and Formula 2 champion, he remains one of the most highly-rated of the young drivers to have graduated to F1 in recent times.
However, his contract with the team was signed under the ownership and leadership of the Williams family, who sold the team to American private investment firm Dorilton Capital, believed to be acting on behalf of an as-yet unconfirmed wealthy individual or family. Sir Frank and Claire Williams have now departed the team, which is currently headed by acting team principal Simon Roberts.
Originally it seemed Dorilton were planning on maintaining stability in the team as they analysed what they needed to do to turn the struggling team around. However, rumours in the last week suggest that changes may be afoot to their confirmed driver line-up, initially focusing on the position of Russell. It seems the team are keen on signing Pérez, who brings a wealth of experience from his decade in the sport and financial backing from the billionaire Carlos Slim via his Telmex corporation – seemingly enough backing to potentially dispense with Russell’s services.
It would be a remarkable move to dismiss one of the most highly-sought-after young drivers on the grid, but it’s not without precedent – in 2010, Nico Hülkenberg scored a pole position for the team at the Brazilian Grand Prix, only to find himself making way for the heavily-backed Pastor Maldonado and sat on the sidelines for the season. Plus, this is the same team that failed to agree terms with Nigel Mansell and Damon Hill during title-winning campaigns – and people said Dorilton weren’t going to respect the Williams heritage…
Initial suggestions that Russell would be under threat have now given way to rumours that Latifi will also be dismissed. The Canadian, who entered the team with a decent track record from F2 and considerable backing from his wealthy father Michael, has had a solid start to his F1 career. Quite who he’d be making way for at this stage is unclear. Journalist Dieter Rencken suggested that it could be Pérez, but another intriguing option is the second driver awaiting Hamilton’s decision – Esteban Ocon.
Ocon, like Verstappen, had been chased by all the major F1 teams during his junior career before eventually agreeing to join the Mercedes programme. But after spending 2019 on the sidelines, his return to action at Renault has left a lot to be desired, with Ricciardo clearly having a considerable performance advantage over him. However, with a two-year contract, it seemed his position was secure alongside Alonso in the newly-rebranded Alpine team. But, in another recent development, that has looked less certain of late, thanks to a combination of a fellow countryman’s success and another team’s setback.
On 2 October, Honda dropped a major bombshell when they announced they would be withdrawing from F1 at the end of 2021, a huge blow to Red Bull and their junior team AlphaTauri who currently work closely with the Japanese manufacturer. Negotiations are currently ongoing as Red Bull look to secure a new engine partner – or potentially take on the existing Honda engines themselves – from 2022 on. A deal with Mercedes to secure the best engines in F1 seems unlikely, while a return to Ferrari power also seems a distant possibility. Instead, if it’s not possible to take on the ex-Hondas, the most likely outcome is a return to working with Renault, with whom Red Bull enjoyed considerable success in the 2010s until an acrimonious divorce that was finally completed at the end of 2018.
It is as a result of this that the latest rumour has emerged. Gasly, now lead driver with AlphaTauri after his demotion from Red Bull last year, is enjoying a fine season including a stunning victory in the Italian Grand Prix. With his confidence restored, the Frenchman is believed to be keen on returning to the senior team next year and once again pit himself against Verstappen. However, it seems the team’s senior figures are reluctant to do this after his disastrous handling of his 2019 promotion, which has caused some tension in the relationship.
With Gasly looking for a future destination away from the Red Bull family, Red Bull in negotiations with Renault about an engine supply deal, and Renault disappointed with Ocon’s performances and keen to have a French driver in their team, there may be an obvious manoeuvring about to take place – a similar deal to the arrangement between the organisations in 2017, when Sainz moved from Toro Rosso to Renault. Hiring Gasly would be yet another change of plan for Renault, who have had a revolving door of drivers since buying the Enstone team ahead of the 2016 season, and would also leave their promising junior drivers Guanyu Zhou and in particular Christian Lundgaard wondering where their careers are heading.
As for Ocon, his F1 future may thus be back in the hands of Mercedes, with whom he retains distant ties. But this would be potentially fraught with danger. Mercedes have already had the opportunity to promote Ocon to their works team, and yet have instead chosen to continually re-sign Bottas to short extensions, suggesting they are not sold on the young Frenchman. Meanwhile, Russell’s emergence provides another threat to his position, with it seeming more likely at this stage that the Englishman is the likely first choice of the two Mercedes juniors to replace either Hamilton or Bottas in the future.
Rencken suggests that Ocon may end up being moved to Williams, but this was an option they had available to them for 2019 and chose not to do it. Moreover, there are suggestions that, in potentially releasing Russell, Dorilton are keen to move away from their ties to Mercedes, despite having a contract to work with them through to the end of 2025.
It’s plausible that both of Mercedes’ young drivers will be on the sidelines for 2021 – having previously dumped their other recent F1 graduate, Pascal Wehrlein, after just two seasons, this could be yet another disappointment for the team’s junior programme. The one way out would be if Hamilton retires, but there’s another potential issue on the horizon.
Red Bull’s loss of Honda backing also has major implications for the future of Verstappen, whose long-term contract is believed to feature various clauses, including a stipulation that Red Bull must have a works engine deal. If Red Bull were to sign a deal with Renault, that would potentially allow Verstappen to leave the team early. Such a move would alert Mercedes, who are thought to see Verstappen as the future lead driver of their team despite having their own junior drivers in the sport. While this would not necessary come into play until 2022 at the earliest, this will undoubtedly having a bearing on Mercedes’ thinking as they negotiate with Hamilton and try to find destinations for Ocon and Russell.
For now, Red Bull’s main task is sorting out who will be driving the second Red Bull car and the two AlphaTauris in 2021. Albon’s performances in the senior team have continued to be erratic, showing little progress since he stepped up. As Verstappen has taken the fight to Hamilton and Bottas in the vastly superior Mercedes, Albon has been making life difficult for himself by showing little pace in qualifying and scrapping in the midfield. Despite scoring his first F1 podium at the Tuscan Grand Prix at Mugello, his position is coming under increasing scrutiny.
While it can be difficult to compete with such a talented and ferociously competitive team mate – see Felipe Massa’s struggles alongside Alonso at Ferrari, Heikki Kovalainen’s stint alongside Hamilton at McLaren, or any number of Michael Schumacher’s team mates – Red Bull are ambitious and ruthless enough to act quickly and make a change if they feel it’s necessary. With so many drivers available, this is a team’s market. Red Bull have the option of retaining Albon both in the senior team or the junior team if they so wish. They also have the option of promoting Gasly, if he can persuade them that he can handle the pressure.
The fourth driver in a Red Bull team is Daniil Kvyat, unlikely to be stepping back up to the senior team after being comprehensively outperformed by Gasly this year, but with the possibility that he could hang on to his AlphaTauri seat if the cards fall his way – something that would likely require one of Albon or Gasly leaving the Red Bull stable entirely, or the Red Bull-backed Japanese prospect Yuki Tsunoda failing to finish in the top five in the F2 standings to pick up the super license points he needs to be able to graduate to F1. Estonian Juri Vips is an outside bet for a seat too.
However, Red Bull are suggesting that they may go outside of their own stable to recruit Verstappen’s team mate. Despite initial speculation linking them with Pérez after his departure from Racing Point was confirmed, and with Magnussen also available as a wildcard option, recent rumours suggest they are gravitating towards Hülkenberg, who has spent most of 2020 on the sidelines after being released by Renault and failing to find another drive, but has impressed in three stand-in appearances for Racing Point after Pérez and Lance Stroll both fell ill. For the German, it seems increasingly likely that it’s Red Bull-or-bust – the seats at the back of the grid are seemingly moving away from him, despite his considerable experience.
The two Ferrari-supported teams, Alfa Romeo and Haas, have struggled in 2020 due to the Italian marque’s engines struggling to keep up with those of Mercedes, Honda and Renault. With none of the four drivers of these teams particularly impressing, speculation has suggested both could clear out their line-ups and start fresh.
But as time has gone on, Alfa Romeo in particular have seemed increasingly likely to keep one or both of their current drivers, shutting off potential opportunities for Pérez and Hülkenberg, who both drove for the team in its days as Sauber. Kimi Räikkönen remains well-respected at the team, and it’s looking almost certain that he will return for yet another season in 2021, marking an incredible 20 years since his debut with the team.
Initial rumours suggested he would be partnered by a rookie from the Ferrari Driver Academy, in particular Mick Schumacher, son of the legendary Michael, who currently leads the F2 standings. Schumacher carries a strong CV, having previously won the European F3 title in 2017, and one of the most famous names in motorsport. The possibility of pairing him with one of his father’s great rivals has obvious appeal from a brand perspective, and initially it seemed logical that this ought to take place at Alfa Romeo, a team carrying one of the most historic names in F1.
However, in recent days, rumours have shifted away from this. Instead, it seems likely that Schumacher will join Haas, as part of Ferrari’s attempts at bolstering their relationship with the American team ahead of the upcoming end of their contract for technical support at the end of 2022. Signing Schumacher will give Haas significantly more profile on the grid than they currently enjoy, but this does come with the caveat that Mick has taken a season and a half to reach his peak performance in F3 and F2.
While Ferrari can boast the promising Callum Ilott and Robert Shwartzman in their academy, it now seems both will be overlooked in favour of keeping former Ferrari junior Antonio Giovinazzi at Alfa Romeo for a third season in 2021. Shwartzman will probably return to F2 for a second season, in which he will be expected to win the championship, while Ilott’s future is more uncertain if he misses out on an F1 seat, as he has already confirmed he does not have the budget for a third F2 season next year.
If it is indeed the case that both Alfa drivers will be retained next year, it’s likely to be a move that underwhelms fans, who are hoping for fresh blood at the team in the shape of one of the Ferrari junior drivers. That being said, Giovinazzi has compared well to Räikkönen in recent races, and there’s a growing feeling that he’s beginning to outperform the Finn. But it remains unclear what this represents, as it’s difficult to gauge Räikkönen’s performances relative to his peak, or even his days at Ferrari alongside Vettel. Either way, this would be a last-chance saloon for the Italian, whose chances of stepping up into a Ferrari seat now look very remote following the team’s decision to sign Sainz for 2021.
By contrast, it looks increasingly certain that Haas will be ditching both Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen next year. Despite having previously emphasised the value of loyalty in keeping the pair on, it seems the team will be looking to start from scratch next year.
For both drivers, this could be the end of the road in their F1 careers. Grosjean is now without a podium finish in five years and those heady days of challenging Vettel for wins in 2013 seem a long time ago. Instead, today he is a driving meme, seemingly only known for getting caught up in clumsy accidents or getting in the way of other drivers – something that does him a gross disservice. He has been linked with Peugeot’s World Endurance Championship hypercar programme, a role that would suit him quite well.
Magnussen’s future is unclear. His road in F1 has been a lot bumpier than was first expected when he stood on the podium on his debut in Melbourne in 2014, being dropped by McLaren after just one year, find a career lifeline with Renault in 2016, and then enjoying a solid spell at a Haas team that has declined considerably over the last two seasons. He probably deserves another crack with a good team to demonstrate just how good he is, but in the congested market place, and with little backing of his own, it’s hard to see how this will materialise at this stage. He will be a loss to the sport if he is left on the sidelines next year.
Initial suggestions that the team were looking to sign Pérez and Ilott have given way to growing rumours that the team will partner Schumacher with one of his F2 rivals, the Russian Nikita Mazepin. Like Stroll and Latifi, Mazepin has benefited from the considerable backing of his father. Dmitry Mazepin is believed to be worth $7 billion and has been linked to buying into F1 teams for some time, including Renault and Williams as well as Haas.
With the commitment of team owner Gene Haas looking increasingly shaky, the possibility of the team selling its race seats to a rookie pay driver and a rookie Ferrari junior driver suggest they are prioritising financial backing over performance. It’s a move that doesn’t bode well for the team’s future, at a time when they ought to be bolstering their line-up with experience ahead of the new rules package coming in to play for 2022 that, with its budget cap and restricted wind tunnel time for leading teams, theoretically plays to the advantage of the smaller teams on the grid.
Mazepin Jr, for his part, has shown an impressive turn of speed at times in a much-improved second season in F2, with feature race wins at Silverstone and Mugello driving for the new Hitech F2 team and comparing well to experienced team mate Luca Ghiotto. This follows finishing as runner-up to the late Anthoine Hubert in GP3 in 2018. But it remains to be seen whether he has the ability to match those F2 rivals who won’t be graduating to F1 next year.
The possibility of Latifi, Mazepin and Stroll all holding seats for the foreseeable future thanks to their fathers’ financial influence points to the lack of financial stability towards the back of the grid. While all of the trio are solid, talented drivers, if they are all on the grid while the likes of Russell, Ocon, Magnussen and Hülkenberg are potentially in exile next year, it would make a mockery of any claims that F1 is a meritocracy with the 20 best drivers in the world on the grid.
Even so, there is a lot to be excited about. Even with the seats that have been confirmed so far, there are plenty of storylines to look forward to – Vettel racing in Aston Martin colours, Alonso’s return to F1, Ricciardo vs Norris at McLaren, and Leclerc vs Sainz at Ferrari. If Hamilton and Mercedes do continue to dominate for the next 18 months ahead of the postponed major rule changes in 2022, the action behind should continue to be fascinating.
But there remains the slim possibility of a much more seismic move for 2021 or 2022, which hinges on the future of F1’s star driver. If Hamilton continues to stall on signing a new contract, the speculation will grow about what happens next. While Lewis remains an incredibly popular and inspirational figure, dominating the championship at the peak of his powers, his departure would undoubtedly spark the competitive side into life, and provide an opportunity for someone new to step into the void that he would leave. And even if he continues into 2021, the terms and conditions of his next Mercedes contract will be crucial for the future of the sport. Once Lewis’ future is revealed, everything will become clearer.
Histor's Eye 